HupSteel Inc

Link to thesis: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ximoek5xfry6rk0/HupSteel.pdf?dl=0
Link to spreadsheet:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/b1fdyxv39pitzzm/HupSteel%20Financial%20Model.xlsx?dl=0

The thesis is 6-months dated. I would give an updated version once the company releases its annual reports.

Summarized version

Business Description
Hupsteel is a supplier and stockist of industrial hardware infrastructure.
It mainly sells pipes & fittings and structural steel to the Marine, Oil & Gas and construction industry in Singapore.

The company also owns 130,000 square feet of freehold investment properties in which it rents out.

Highlights
$0.25 in working capital (current assets - total liabilities)
Current assets consist of assets with high recovery value such as cash and available-for-sale financial assets and semi-high recovery value such as inventories. The only risk is in accounts receivables which has a spiking +180DPD receivables value.
The stockist business model allows the company to remain profitable even in lights of economic distress.
The company is near or has already passed its cyclical trough.

The company also owns significant investment properties holdings. I estimate the value of these holdings to be roughly $0.185.
I believe that the company has invested too heavily into CAPEX historically, which led to excess capacity. At best, these excess capacity provides no value. At worst, they are a drag to results. The company could easily monetize this asset which would be instantly accretive to the company's value.

By buying this company today at $0.21, you are buying a company that is trading below Graham's net-net valuation ($0.25), and you get the investment properties, excess capacity, and business for free.

Valuation
In the base case, the company has a 140% upside of non-activism value.
In the bear case, the company still possess a 50% upside to current price.
In the bull case, the company has a 165% upside of non-activism value.